Signals
A Signal Is a Clue, Not a Forecast
Learn to read a signal without mistaking it for a forecast: separate what changed from the story, check its context…
The full collection
All articles
Explore pieces on signals, scenarios, assumptions, decisions and the role imagination can play when the future is uncertain.
Scenarios
Three Futures for One Uncertain Question
Three futures for one uncertain question help a group compare distinct possibilities, expose dependencies and prepare…
Assumptions
The Assumption Hidden in a Straight-Line Forecast
A straight-line forecast can make a trend look settled. Learn to expose its hidden conditions and choose a sensible…
Decisions
Keep a Choice Useful Across Several Outcomes
Keep a choice useful across several outcomes by comparing what each path makes possible, then committing only when the…
Imagination
A Five-Question Reset for a Stuck Future
A five-question reset for a stuck future helps loosen one fixed picture, explore credible alternatives and decide what…